February to end with record-smashing warmth in Midwest, Eastern U.S.

Another major pulse of record-setting warmth is predicted for the end of February from the Upper Midwest to the East Coast, as the “lost winter” for much of the region charges on.

Temperatures are predicted to rise at least 20 to 40 degrees above average, setting hundreds of records between Monday and Wednesday.

The warmth is expected to surge north ahead of a powerful low-pressure system sweeping across the nation. As it draws warm and humid air northward, it should also generate fuel for possible severe thunderstorms in parts of the Midwest and South on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The anticipated mild weather could help clinch the warmest climatological winter (defined as December through February) on record for the Lower 48 and leave many people wondering where the season went.

Turning up the heat

As a taste of what’s to come, temperatures shot up to as high as 94 degrees Wednesday at Rio Grande Village, Tex., near the border with Mexico. Widespread highs in the 80s spread north into Oklahoma.

Among other records in the region, it reached 83 degrees in Amarillo, Tex., and Oklahoma City.

Advertisement

The warmth and lack of winter storms since last weekend have again resulted in record-low snow cover extent averaged over the Lower 48 and the continued record-low Great Lakes ice.

The round of springlike weather poised for early next week will swell over a much larger area, producing highs in the 80s and 90s again in the south-central United States while 60s spread as far north as Minneapolis and Green Bay, Wis.

By the time this warm spell winds down later next week, most places east of the Rockies and north of the Gulf Coast will have probably challenged or set warm-weather records.

Hundreds of records to fall

An exceptional number of calendar-day warm-weather records are predicted early next week.

Nighttime temperatures will probably be especially mild. Hundreds of record warm nighttime lows are at risk between Monday and Wednesday. On Tuesday, lows will drop only to near 60 in St. Louis and around 50 in Chicago; this is considerably warmer than average afternoon highs.

By Wednesday, much of the Mid-Atlantic will have lows in the 50s, which is also warmer than normal afternoon highs.

The afternoon highs themselves will also be abnormally warm and record-setting in many places. About 50 record highs could be set on both Monday and Tuesday. On Monday, many of the records are projected in the Plains and Midwest before they shift to the zone from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

On Monday, temperatures are predicted to surge into the low to mid-90s in South Texas, past 80 into Kansas, and into the 60s in North Dakota and Minnesota.

Tuesday’s highs could soar to near 70 in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, the warmest weather should shift to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Advertisement

Here are several locations that could set record highs between Monday and Wednesday:

• Dallas: 90 degrees Monday (27 degrees above normal).
• Little Rock: 80 degrees Tuesday (22 degrees above normal).
• St. Louis: 79 degrees Tuesday (29 degrees above normal).
• Des Moines: 72 degrees Monday (32 degrees above normal).
• Washington Dulles International Airport: 70 degrees Wednesday (21 degrees above normal).
• Toledo: 66 degrees Tuesday (22 degrees above normal).
• Rochester, N.Y.: 63 degrees Wednesday (25 degrees above normal).

In much of the affected region, high temperatures will be at least 20 to 25 degrees above normal for a day or two. Some areas in the Midwest and Northeast will probably see highs 30 to 40 degrees above normal.

A tame end to a toothless climatological winter

Outside a brief cold snap or two, winter was largely absent for much of the eastern two-thirds of the Lower 48 and especially in the Great Lakes region.

The average temperature from Fargo, N.D., to International Falls, Minn., is running about 12 to 15 degrees above normal in what will become the warmest winter on record in that region. There are scores of locations from the Upper Midwest to the Northeast that will clinch their warmest winter.

Following a December with barely a whiff of cold air, mid-January produced a flurry of cold weather records. Even so, there was a late-month pulse of milder weather that produced hundreds of more warm-weather records.

Advertisement

The weather pattern in February more or less mimicked December’s — as cold air again went into hibernation. So far this month, not even counting the warm-weather records in the pipeline, there have been 1,800 warm records, compared with just 129 cold records.

Since December, the count of warm records is around 7,600 compared with 2,300 cold records. In a stable climate, these numbers would be much more even.

Both human-caused climate change and the strong El Niño climate pattern are driving this exceptionally warm winter season.

It’s possible the weather pattern will shift to a chillier one by mid-March because of an anticipated disruption of the polar vortex. However, scientists aren’t sure how that will play out.

Jason Samenow contributed to this report.

ncG1vNJzZmivp6x7uK3SoaCnn6Sku7G70q1lnKedZMSmrdOhnKtnYmV%2FdXuPa2Zra1%2BnsqS70Z1ksJmionqnscGrrJqqqWLEqrrTnqlmpZmZxKa%2F02acmqukZA%3D%3D